Iran-Usa, willing to bet against my scenario?

Question

I'm willing to bet 10000(ten thousand dollars) against anyone whose willing to bet against me that the following scenario will take place concernng the Iran-Usa nuclear problem

1-There will be no invasion-limited war-totalwar-or even an air strike from the USA against any target in Iran untill the end of 2006.(USA is not that stupid)
2-There will be no air strikes against Iran from Israil untill the end of 2006.(Siraeil is not that incredibly stupid)
3-There will be some form of silly agreement that prevents Iran from manifacturing/importing/aquiring more centrifugators or simillar equipment to manifacture a bomb (what bomb anyway?Just a hoax)
In short, despite the threats that will ascalate daramaticaly during the commning couple of months, NO MILLITARY ACTION OF ANY SORT will take place against Iran.

Any one foolish enough to bet against me?

Answer 1

The "red lines" for military action is when Iran has developed:



1. weapons grade enriched uranium (90-95%), ~2008

2. next technical hurdle is constructing the trigger mechanism. 2010-11

3. engineering device for delivery, ie, making it small enough to fit on a warhead. 2012 at the earliest.



Each step is no small feat, by 2012, there may be a regime change and all the current tension will have subsided.



The point i've been trying to make is that we've lived under the shadow of nuclear holocaust for 50 years, the real tension is the hair triggers of the US and Russian arsenals, forget about the Iranian potential.

Answer 2

This Iranian lunatic president will be countered, yes. I doubt that it will come to a fight, though. If it does come to that, the battle will last a week at best. But then American forces will have to occupy Iran, too. And that just won't be fun.



Personally, I'd like to see the US just take the reins off of Israel and let them do what they really want to to these guys. Israel could put the entire Middle East under martial law within 2 months, and then we could just buy our oil from them. Hell, let them do it. It's their war, not ours...

Answer 3

Lol of all the above answers , especilay those who oposed you, none of them was crazy enough to accept your wager, nor am I :)



Yessir, there will not be ANY millitary action of any sort or magnitude against Iran,stubborn or not, threatening israel or not, it's all psychological warfare and there will be no action against Iran for very obvious reasons! and I wonder if any fool who opposes this would be willing to put his money where his big mouth is:)



The current governament could be dumb, but not to that extent.

Answer 4

i doubt it, as military intelligence won't be able to be shown one hundred % precise in the adventure that they released a strike on say 80 launch silos wondering it a success there ought to always be yet another elsewhere. it in person-friendly words takes some seconds to launch a nuke after the command is given. any style of attack will be an act of war. and if iran did have nukes i wouldnt antagonize them. i dont see the west attempting on russia or china or north korea

Answer 5

I hope you're right. By the way, you wouldn't happen to be an Iranian, would you? Sounds like a little bitterness toward the United States and Israel.

Answer 6

I would agree that nothing is going to happen in 2006. It's midterm election year, dude. We haven't even 'exited' the last invasion. We can't be starting another when votes are on the line.

Answer 7

I'm pretty sure that the majority of people in this country (USA) hope military action will not happen, but I think eventually we're going to be obligated to use some sort of force.

Answer 8

President Abjudhamahad or whatever your name is you dont fool me for one moment you will not endanger our free way of life you will not get the bomb to use against the forces of freedom i know who you are and what you stand for my president said that you might be in the axis of evil beware i am a patriotic flag carrying american and i am currently loading my guns to get ready for war2008.

Answer 9

Since there's no such place as "Israil" or "Siraeil", I'll take the bet! Just kidding.

Hope you're right about there being no action...

Answer 10

You seem very sure. I'de like to believe you, but do you have any proof?

But yes your probably right, America's name is already in mud, with the Afgan/Iraq mess. So i doubt that they will attack iran.



SO I Won't bet against you :-D.

Answer 11

What you say sounds good, but with a son of a b**** like Bush STILL in the White House, you never know.

He's just sadistic like that.

Kinda reminds me of that roman guy... Nero, was it?

Answer 12

There probaly wont be any silly agreements Iran want's Israel gone.

Answer 13

1

Answer 14

#1 YOU ARE STUPID #2 I GLAD YOU ARE NOT AMERICAN #3 THE US WILL NOT LET IRAN OR ANY OTHER STUPID TOWEL HEAD COUNTRY HAVE A NUKE SO FORGET IT. #4 IF YOU LIVE IN AMERICA YOU MIGHT WANT TO GET YOUR A$$ BACK WHERE YOU CAME FROM #5 HAVE A GREAT DAY

Answer 15

How can US possibly tell anyone not to have nuclear weapons/WMD while still keeping it's own huge stockpile?